The Canadian Centre for Cyber Security (Cyber Centre) has published its National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025-2026 (NCTA 2025-2026), providing an overview of current and emerging cyber threats facing Canada.
The assessment described a landscape characterized by complex and evolving cyber activities from both state-sponsored and financially motivated actors, with potential implications for individuals, organizations, and government bodies.
The report highlighted that state-sponsored cyber threats pose an expanding risk, as foreign adversaries are increasingly moving beyond traditional espionage to engage in disruptive operations. The Cyber Centre emphasized that these actors are likely combining network attacks with coordinated information campaigns to shape public perception and intimidate, targeting critical infrastructure as part of their strategies.
Cybercrime continues to be a pervasive and destabilizing force. The report identified ransomware as the primary cybercrime threat to Canada’s critical infrastructure, warning that ransomware groups are expected to escalate their methods in the coming years. The thriving Cybercrime-as-a-Service model enables a broader spectrum of cybercriminals to access sophisticated tools and stolen data, amplifying the cybercrime ecosystem’s resilience and reach.
Geopolitical factors play a significant role in influencing cyber threat activities. The report cited the People's Republic of China as presenting the most sophisticated state cyber threat, conducting operations for political and economic advantage, including intellectual property theft and surveillance. Russia is highlighted as targeting Canada, motivated by its foreign policy and strategic alliances, while Iran is noted for disruptive activities and monitoring of regime opponents. Budget 2024 allocated $917.4 million over five years to bolster intelligence and cyber operations,
Rajiv Gupta, head of the Cyber Centre, underscored the importance of collective efforts in enhancing national cyber resilience. “The information we provide in the National Cyber Threat Assessment helps us all better understand the threats and how we can work together to protect ourselves and defend our country. It’s up to all of us to make Canada’s cyber space safer and more secure,” Gupta said.
Minister of National Defence Bill Blair added, “As we continue to become more connected than ever, we cannot deny that the cyber threats we face are evolving. Canadians have no doubt noticed the increase in cyber incidents in recent years, and these will only become more pervasive. The National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025-2026 is an important tool to inform and equip our people and our organizations—both on what we are facing now and what we can expect in the coming years.”